Mexico at the crossroads, at the crossroads.
This week, I had the opportunity to share with various businessmen and experts their views on Mexico in both the USA In the political as well as the economic field.
The The contrast is huge. While some businessmen see a very favorable circumstance in terms of Economic Opportunities, The The political landscape looks bleak And with the possibility of polluting the economy and destroying even the brightest expectations.
Why does it look good for Mexico in economic terms?
mainly thanks His relationship with the United States.
Our northern neighbors have the world’s largest economy, which not only is experiencing one of the highest growth rates in decades this year, but under the Biden government’s policies, is likely to see high growth again. In 2022 and 2023, at the latest.
Mexico is the main trading partner of the United States thanks to the fact that it has a legal instrument that generates certainty, TMEC.
The high growth rate of the North American economy benefits us directly.
But, in addition, the process called Nearg fa a Attract additional investment to the country. In fact, it is already doing so, particularly on the northern border.
The economic conflict between the United States and China benefits us and could do more than that.
Of course, a close relationship with our neighbor has costs as well. if it was monetary normalization That the Federal Reserve undertakes not to implement it carefully, it could lead to a sudden movement of capital that would affect the value of our currency.
But if things go well, our proximity and relationship with the United States will have a clear positive balance.
The problem is that the economic and political life There are different sections. They interconnected and coexisting.
This could cause problems.
The views of various experts on Mexican politics converge to recognize this President Lopez Obrador has changed after the June elections. She hardened and drew to solidify her strength.
One of the most important components of the concentration of power you seek is elimination, or at least Weaken the counterweight.
For the next few months, maybe Its main objective is the National Electoral Institute (INE).
I remind you that IFE was born in response to the political crisis that Mexico experienced in 1994.
To some extent, its creation launched the process of building democratic institutions and strengthening the counterweight to power in Mexico.
This is why INE is so important.
If the institution responsible for regulating and legitimizing the electoral processes in the country can be dismantled or weakened, the democratic system that was formed in the era that the President of the Republic describes as neoliberal and which coincided with the formation of a group of organizations and institutions that limited presidential power in Mexico.
Litigation related to counseling Revocation of the authorization is not a matter of recourse.
The political forces close to the president see in this case the An opportunity to discredit the National Institute of Statistics.
Another ominous sign on the political scene concerns electricity reform, which is, in fact, energy reform.
If it is approved as is, that means Dealing a fatal blow to private sector participation in this sector, both stemming from the 2013 reform, and the other years ago, in addition to damaging investment in many sectors.
General Motors has already publicly announced that the continuity of its investments in Mexico depends on Policies aimed at promoting clean energy.
The issue is not only the impact of this reform on the energy sector and environmental issues, an effect in itself that would be very serious, but Generate generalized uncertainty To invest in general due to lack of knowledge of contracts and other legal tools that reform will bring.
If you add the attack to the INE at the same time as the energy repair, the risk deep political decline That could put us in a situation similar to what we had in the ’70s or ’80s.
She commented that the bleak political landscape could not be independent of the promising economic prospects.
As President Lopez Obrador himself said, politics prevails over the economy.
Problems of government administration are likely to jeopardize the advantages of the economic situation.
So we are at a crossroads that could chart not only the immediate perspective but the future of the country.
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