BBVA lowered its estimate for growth in Mexico to 6% in 2021
The BBVA cut its growth forecast for the Mexican economy this Thursday to 6% from the previous 6.3%., although it rose to 3.2%, from the previous 3%, it had forecast for 2022.
Adjustments occur due to the impact of the third wave of Covid-19 infection for the country and the effects resulting from The global disruption of value chains, the chief economist at BBVA Mexico explained, Carlos Serrano, when viewing the Status of Mexico report.
These revisions are due to the fact that the economy has slowed down because of this third wave, because of these bottlenecks, and we think part of that loss will recover next year, Serrano said.
In addition to more than 3.76 million cases and nearly 285,000 deaths – the fourth highest number in the world – the Covid-19 pandemic has caused contraction Historic 8.2% of gross domestic product Mexico in 2020.
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The institution had forecast Mexico’s GDP growth of 6.3% in July, driven by a drop in infections, the rhythm of a campaign vaccinationeconomy recovery United State and an increase in consumption.
In contrast, Cyrano referred to the influence of the third wave of SARS-CoV-2 – which started about four months ago in the country – and the vaccination delay that has been applied is about 82.85 dose per 100,000 inhabitants, less than Argentina, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Chile and Brazil.
Among those who have started the vaccination process, Mexico is lagging far behind. Mexico is close to the world average, but it lags even compared to the economies in the region,” the economist commented.
Investment, 14% below pre-pandemic levels
consumption indicator BBVA show Drop 1% quarterly from July to September after increasing more than 10% in the second quarter. In addition to, Investment is still 14% lower than the January 2019 levelCyrano has been added.
for this part, Industrial production is still 2.4% lower than in January 2020, before the arrival of the epidemic, due to bottlenecks in value chains in the world.
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Mexico recovery, whose current GDP is still below pre-pandemic levelsIt is slower than other Latin American countries, such as Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Argentina, the BBVA economist explained.
Even within the region, we believe that the reason Mexico lags behind other countries is due to the lack of a fiscal response. We think it was appropriate to implement a financial response, and that Mexico has the space,” Serrano said.
It also raised the report to 6.5%, from the previous 6%, which is a forecast inflation A year for Mexico in 2021. This indicates more than double the central bank’s 3% target. But inflation will “significantly decrease” from the second quarter of 2022, the year when it will reach a rate of 3.5%, according to data from BBVA.
Meanwhile, the exchange rate forecast rose to 19.85 pesos per dollar compared to the previous 19.70 Mexican units per US bill. In this segment, for 2022, the forecast also increased to 20.90 from 20.70 previously.
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