This Thursday, El Financiero brought together experts and analysts who have studied what Mexico has in store for the economic issues facing the increasingly approaching 2022.
Electricity reform proposed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and the “nationalization” of lithium were some of the issues addressed in the EF Meet Point. Economic forecasts for 2022 and beyond, led by Enrique Quintana, Vice President and Managing Editor at finance, In it, Gabriella Celler, Director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE; Luis Fonserada, Chief Economist, American Chamber of Commerce; Alonso Cervera, chief Latin American economist at Credit Suisse.
We leave you the sweetest words:
Alonso Cervera’s photo
“Electricity reform) would be a severe setback if they agreed to this reform, I hope they don’t. What will the effect be? It will have a negative impact, mainly in two respects, first, discouraging investment. Mexican and foreign companies, whether they are in the energy or electricity sector, will want Or not, at a lower investment if you continue to see signals like the one that the President is sending out with this proposal.”
“If this reform continues, and the state is given the exclusivity in the exploitation and exploration of lithium, etc., I think it will have negative consequences for the economy. What lithium is used for? For cell phone batteries and car batteries, if we only had one supplier for this product, we could Its availability is at risk and this can stifle the production chains of some goods and services in the economy.
“The starting opportunity (of the Mexican economy) is greater integration with the United States and Canada, so that Mexico can be part of the North American bloc, which can attract the Americas region (…) if we can continue to add to the economic support integration efforts, if it is It is possible to solve migration issues in international trade, I think we can be part of the pillar of the region, it is an opportunity not to miss this process.
We’ve seen in the past many signs of “here comes the wolf” as it hit the US government’s authorized debt ceiling, sometimes government shutdown, for weeks. The government shutdown means they keep going to the office only, and there are only basic and essential operations. It can happen if you don’t expand it.”
“There is a series of agreements (in the T-MEC) on non-discriminatory treatment, respect for investment, protection and security of foreign investment. I think (electricity reform) may violate some of these principles”
Another fundamental issue is the importance of investing in the country’s future. The investment was not what we were asking, and it certainly could also postpone some of the planned investments. In this sense, the impact (of electricity reform) due to the commitments in T-MEC and the effects it may have on investment in general is worrisome.”
“We believe that inflation every month next year will be above four percent and will remain so until 2023 when it begins to decline, and until 2024 the target set by the Bank of Mexico of three percent can be achieved.”
“For this year, it is very likely that we will see again Historical capital flow, especially because we already have now, as of September 27, the most recent data available, such as 84 percent of total production for 2020. If the trend continues, this will be the second year in a row that historically capitals have left, something unprecedented in Mexico.” .
“Inflation does not drop suddenly, especially if raw materials go into a super cycle. The shortages of products will continue and the cost of sea freight will continue to rise internationally.”
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