Drought will devastate the world economy in the long run: crop failures and disease recovery

A few days after the United Nations published a report warning of Unprecedented temperatures the planet will witness in the next five years climate change and boyNow, international researchers have put a number on the disaster.

the economic consequences This phenomenon can last for several years. According to science, in the years when they occur, the strip of warm ocean waters stretching from South America to Asia, known as El Niño, causes far-reaching climate changes that cause devastating floodsAnd Drought which ends with cropsDropp off fish stock and height in tropical diseases.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The natural cycle of warm and cold temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean Which includes its cooler counterpart, La Niña. El Niño events change weather patterns around the world and, in the United States, typically result in wetter, warmer winters on the West Coast and a milder hurricane season on the Atlantic coast.

The researchers spent two years examining global economic activity In the decades following the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Niño episodes, a “persistent imprint” of slowing economic growth was found after more than five years. The global economy bled $4.1 and $5.7 trillion, respectively, in the half-decade after each of these events, most of it at the expense of the poorest countries in the tropics.

Losses of $84 billion

Researchers predict that global economic losses in the twenty-first century will reach $84 trillion. Where climate change is likely to amplify the frequency and the power of El Niño, even if current commitments by world leaders to cut carbon emissions are met. They estimate that El Niño alone, projected for 2023, could slow the global economy by up to $3 trillion between now and 2029.

Lead author Christopher Callahan, a doctoral candidate in geography at Dartmouth University, says the study addresses an ongoing debate about how quickly societies can recover from major weather events such as El Niño. “We can say with certainty that societies and economies do not recover on their own,” Callahan said in a statement, adding that his data indicated that post-El Niño recessions could last up to 14 years, if not longer.