Alberto Fernandez returned from his European tour and confirmed he needed the help of the United States to close a deal with the IMF

Alberto Fernandez He returned today satisfied from his whirlwind tour of Italy and Great Britain. He estimates that it strengthened its geopolitical ties with Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Great Britain, Canada and the European Union.

“The G20 made two recommendations to the IMF that I proposed long ago: it was very good and it symbolizes a path forward for reforming the financial system after the pandemic.”, assured the President in Glasgow, Scotland, in the framework of the COP26 climate summit.

These initiatives are linked to using Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to reduce cost escalation and target the economies of poor and middle-income countries, which were suffocated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Thus, the president found a political thread that allows him to support the recommendations of the Paris Agreement on climate change and demands that the International Monetary Fund agree to use the green agenda to reduce those nations’ debt. Ho, who lack the public reserves to face the future. maturity..

In this sense, Alberto Fernandez made the most of each of his presentations at the G20 in Rome and COP26 in Glasgow by requesting that the IMF articulate an institutional policy that links the Paris Agreement to the financial needs of debtor countries.

This agenda is supported by major European countries. Pedro Sanchez (Spain), Mario Draghi (Italy), Emmanuel Macron (France), Angela Merkel (Germany) and boris johnson (Great Britain) committed to Alberto Fernandez to include his proposals in the final G20 communiqué.

But that political commitment, which recognizes the president’s international work, is of little value if Argentina doesn’t add Joseph Biden.. Alberto Fernandez deployed an offensive in the United States to get its support at the International Monetary Fund, and that offensive has so far produced only reflective results.

That is to say, the White House, the State Department and the Treasury Department cooperate in the negotiations, they do not block public movements Martin Guzmán, Gustavo Belize and Jorge Argüello Wait for a signal from the Oval Room to speed up further talks in Washington.

Moment of the final sprint with Biden, personally involved in institutional decisions Kristalina Georgieva – causes some friction among cabinet members who answer to Alberto Fernandez, the managing director of the IMF.

Strategic Affairs Secretary Belize argues that Biden should be included as soon as possible. And so he picked it up in a speech to Alberto Fernández that Foreign Minister Santiago Cafiero dismissed with a quick reading..

Béliz and Cafiero agree on the need to include Biden, but differ regarding method and timing. The draft, written by the Secretary of State, called for direct and public involvement of Biden, while the chancellor is betting on a more prominent role behind the scenes.

Alberto Fernandez “has confidence” in his ally, the United States, which oversees talks with the IMF. During his meeting with Georgieva in Rome, Jeffrey Okamoto, two from the fund and a White House representative at the multilateral credit organization, sat next to her.

The president has yet to decide whether to request direct action from the Democratic leader to pursue talks with the IMF. He had already done so with Sanchez, Macron, Draghi and Merkel, but he still doubts whether it is time to take structural and definitive moves with Biden.

Matter little in the absence of strong personal ties between the two leaders, Cafiero Argüello and Belize have enough contacts to arrange a phone call or videoconference in the West Wing of the White House that Olivos connects with DC. Any of these three officers can talk Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, or his person in charge of Latin America, Juan Gonzalez, to agree on an official communication.

The head of state also managed to get the G20 to support his strategy of unifying foreign debt negotiations with the support of the Paris Agreement recommendations on climate change. Even then, This support does not mean that these same G20 countries—the United States, Germany, France, Japan, Spain, Italy and Great Britain, for example—affirm the position when Argentina’s case is settled on the IMF board. Is.

G20 release is a significant diplomatic event without sovereign imposition, while the vote in the IMF is meant to decide the $44,000 million that Argentina will have to pay over the next three years.

In this context, Alberto Fernández still cannot be sure that the United States, Germany, France, Great Britain and Japan support Argentina’s proposal to refinance the $44,000 million stand-by loan that Mauricio Macri said. Received with the permission of Donald Trump.

Furthermore, if the policy of surcharges is addressed at an IMF meeting in December, the president and his team of negotiators – Cafiero, Guzmán, Belize and Argüello – still have no certainty of securing a favorable vote. Despite the G20’s unanimous statement in Rome.

From this perspective, Alberto Fernández negotiates alternative avenues to prevent negotiations with the IMF from turning into a covenant. The choice in the legal and political design process is the IMF’s exemption for Argentina. That pardon, in simple terms, means that the fund provides the country with a grace period to avoid default.

In this grace period, Argentina must define the economic program that supports the refinancing of the multi-million dollar loan contracted by Macri. If there is no agreement with the IMF, and the exemption expires, Argentina will be in default.

With the final mechanism of pardons trying to reach a consensus with Georgieva, the president pushed a box in his proposal to Pari Pasu. The proposal means that if Argentina signs an extended facilities loan for 10 years, and the IMF opens a new line of credit in that period, the country can join if it is beneficial to its economy.

Alberto Fernandez wants to honor the debt, and this interest is evident in his speeches and in his bilateral meetings at the G20 in Rome. However, the Head of State’s Declaration of Principles is not enough to convince the Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The destination of the talks belongs to the United States of America. This is not an ideological concept, it is an unavoidable fact that pertains to the Realpolitik Kingdom: the White House handles about 17 percent of the shares on the IMF board, and without that number the Argentine case cannot be approved.

So it all depends on Biden. And Biden knows it.

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