The recovery will slow in the first quarter
GDP growth projections for 2021 may exceed 4%, but the recovery will face a slowdown in the first quarter of the year.
Felix Boone, Director of Analytics at HR Ratings, explained that given the new confinement situation, the economy could post a 10% decline in the first quarter of the year at an annual rate, while it could record a 10% decline in the first quarter of 2019. It has growth. 1%.
Growth forecasts are starting to revise after the decline in the US economy was less than expected. The consensus indicated a decline of more than 8%, while at the end of the year, thanks to the stimulus of the US government, the decline was only 3.5%, and this allowed Mexico’s forecast to move from a double-digit decline. To a decrease of 8.5% at the end of the year.
Manufacturing has recovered, but the slowdown is expected to be more negative. “It’s a statistical effect that is practically unavoidable,” said Bonnie.
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With regard to the relationship between the vaccination campaign and the growth of the economy, the analyst explained that Mexico faces challenges in vaccination dates, but they are not particularly different from the rest of the countries.
He added, “It is natural for us to face slow problems (in implementing vaccines), as it is a macroeconomic factor and can cause problems in the first quarter, which are problems that other countries have faced as well.”
HR Ratings forecasts growth of 4.26% at the end of 2021, which at the end of the year required a quarterly growth rate of 2.5%. The rating agency highlights in its analysis that the economy has already shown weakness since 2019.
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