Caixabank expects recessions in Italy, Germany and the UK

caixabank He expects a more economically favorable winter than expected in Europe. However, at least three countries on the continent will enter recession this year: Italy s Germanywhose economy will decline by 0.3%, and kingdom unitedwhich will contract between one and 1.5%.

Spain will grow above 1%, and in fact, the Bank will improve its forecasts in the coming weeks due to a less than expected impact from calamity Energetic. In terms of inflation, the country will close the year with a further 4.5% rise in prices, which is lower than in the previous two years, but which will entail another loss in the purchasing power of workers.

Economic vulnerability

oriole aspaxDirector of the Spanish Economy in caixabankThis forecast of the tourism event Barcelona s behindOrganized by Horwath HTL Consultancy. However, he stressed that the current situation prevents accurate predictions and that only the most likely scenarios can be analyzed.

The analyst advanced that the weakness noted in the second quarter of 2022 “will continue for much of this year.” You have ruled out high growth rates but also a deep, widespread and persistent recession. Concerned about the evolution Chinabecause of the effect pandemic And risks tingling Real estate.

Consumption is stagnant

Recent data from Spain surprised, as the economy was saved from an expected decline in the last quarter. According to Aspachs, the most noticeable recession will be in consumption From captivity, which is weak.

However, it has not decreased, mainly due to the good development of profession And because of the low fear of losing a job compared to other crises. To make up for the weakness in depreciation, the manager noted that it would be a “good year” in investments And public spending, especially due to increased activation money next generation.