After 100,000 simulations, the AI ​​predicts the hero

On this occasion, scientists from the Alan Turing Institute, an artificial intelligence research center run by the most prestigious universities in the United Kingdom, joined the expectations of the results of the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

A group of experts made up of Nick Barlow, Jack Roberts and Ryan Chan, has designed artificial intelligence to predict which countries have the best chances of lifting the trophy. World cup fixtures are not an easy task, but the trio believes that their system can narrow down the contenders.

These results were obtained after running 100,000 simulations, where you can see which teams win the championship the most times.

What were the results?

The country most likely to win the 2022 Qatar Cup was Brazil, with a 25% advantage over other teams.

While Belgium and Argentina They are also of a high degree. England He is the fifth most likely to win.

How does this algorithm work?

east Statistical model It is based on AIrsenal, which they developed in 2018 to play Fantasy Premier League. This, in turn, is based on a 1997 model by Dixon and Coles (a classic thing in football prediction circles) that contains criteria for offensive strength, defensive strength, and a team’s key advantage, and uses Bayesian statistics to calculate the most likely outcome of a game.

In the training data, more importance (weight) is given to World Cup matches (then less importance to continental championships, knockout matches and friendly matches), and more weight is given to recent matches. The official FIFA rankings have been integrated to provide an up-to-date estimate of a team’s performance.