bloomberg – Argentina is in a better position than France to reap the economic benefits that would normally accrue By winning the FIFA World CupAccording to an academic who has studied historical records.
The world champion’s economy usually grows by an additional 0.25 percentage point in the two quarters following a championshipAccording to a recent study conducted by Marco Miloat the University of Surrey, UK.
This is mainly due to increased exports, thanks to the fact that Champion has greater international visibility, Milo said in an interview. His research showed a huge rise in overseas sales from Brazil after winning the 2002 World Cup, for example.
He considered that among the two countries that will play the final match this year on Sunday – a game that half the globe is expected to watch -, Argentina, with a similar export profile, is likely to receive this kind of boost.
“If either country stands to benefit, in a similar way to Brazil, it is Argentina, not Francesays Milo, a postdoctoral researcher in Surrey. Furthermore, “there could be a less visible impact for France because they are the defending champions, so it wouldn’t be a surprise.”
The other new thing, says Milo, is the change of the month in which the championship is held this year in Qatar, which is held in the winter of the northern hemisphere, unlike the previous one. Can change the economic effects of winning it.
Previous studies have also shown that success in the world’s largest sporting event can boost economic growth. Reaching the quarter-finals could simply increase exports and diversify trade, according to the 2014 research, which could be a positive for Morocco, which was a surprise semi-finalist this year, and, to a lesser extent, for Croatia.
However, the economic context is not encouraging for any of the finalists.
France is facing an energy crisis and a wave of strikes. Argentina’s inflation rate is close to 100%. It is affected by drought, which threatens to cut crop exports sharply next year.
Melo says history suggests that pre-existing financial problems may limit the benefits that come from winning the FIFA World Cup.
He points out that “if there was a country in the last FIFA World Cup that did not find much benefit after the tournament, this is Spain in 2010, when there was a sovereign debt crisis.” “The cost of living crisis and this potential upcoming recession could mask the potential effects of winning the World Cup.”
— in collaboration with Patrick Gillespie and William Horrobin.
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