Brussels. – When Brexie, With opponents of divorce European Union (EU) predicted the beginning of the end known as The uk.
Five years after the “no” victory for the European Community, the puzzle of the dissolution of the union appears to be taking shape.
Previously, Northern Ireland remained in the European Economic Area, now voters have given more power to the libertarians Scotland, Who in a consultation on 23 June 2016, voted strongly in favor of remaining in the European Union.
In the legislative elections on 6 May, the Scottish National Party (SNP for its abbreviation in English) led by Nicola Sturgeon not only registered its fourth consecutive victory, but also won 64 seats, an absolute majority. is.
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For Sturgeon this result was “historic and extraordinary”, given that his party had been ruling for 14 years. But above all, he said, it was a step towards independence.
“Given this result, it has no democratic justification. boris johnson, Or anyone else, try to block the right of the people of Scotland to choose their future, ”he said.
For Boris Johnson, the conservative premier and one of the architects of Brexit, the issue of Scottish independence was settled in a 2014 consultation and a new call would be as irresponsible at a time as Great Britain is experiencing due to the epidemic. Kovid-19K.
“The key after the elections is that the Scottish Parliament has a clear pro-independence majority, meaning that if there is another referendum or similar initiative, it is very likely that it will get a majority in the Chamber,” says Professor Nicola McEwen, member of the UK at the Center for Changing Europe Studies.
If Sturgeon wants Scotland to once again have a chance to decide its future in elections, they need to say yes to the UK Government for the transfer of powers to the Scottish Parliament.
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This may be through an Act passed by the Westminster Parliament or temporarily through the activation of the so-called Section 30 Order.
This has happened in the past to allow the Scottish Parliament to legislate on issues that relate specifically to Scotland, such as changing the voting age.
The same was the case in the independence referendum held in 2014, after the signing of the then British Prime Minister David Cameron and the Scottish leader, Alex Salmond, the so-called House of St Andrews, the seat of autonomous government. Called “the settlement of Edinburgh”.
In a forum called to change Europe to analyze the effects of legislative elections for the future of the Union, and which was attended by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, it was clear that Sturgeon had a second referendum in mind , Economic Reform It tops their list of 11 priorities.
But there is also the conviction that the Irwin original will not proceed unilaterally, that is, it will not invoke consultation without the necessary legitimacy and without the British government committed to recognizing the consequences. Should we face political resistance at 10 Downing Street, these norms could lead us to pursue legal processes, even in the Supreme Court.
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“For it to be recognized internationally, it is necessary that it be an agreed and valid process at home,” McEwen said.
Despite notable results from independents, they form a block of 71 out of 129 seats, with political scientists saying that divorce is not an absolute will, but neither is permanency in the union.
“If there is a referendum, what is the probability of a yes? Scotland has long been known to cut it in half,” he says.
According to the latest YouGov survey, 51% would be in favor of freedom and 49% against it.
On the other hand, he assured that Brexit has further complicated the situation. While this strengthened the political case in favor of a new referendum by the SNP, it further complicated the possibility of a border between England and an independent Scotland should it decide to return to the European Union.
“The more the process is debated, the more attention will be diverted from the substance,” he said.
In other words, the same could be the case for Brexit, in which there was talk of staying or leaving, but not about the practical implications and consequences of the decision made in the elections.
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