The global economy is recovering at a high rate, but in a very uneven way because everything depends on overcoming the health and economic crisis, which in turn depends on vaccination and public aid to restore normal life. There are already 3000 million doses given worldwide and over 800 million receiving the full schedule, but it is hardly possible to cover 10% of the target population, due to the unstable supply of vaccines in some countries, despite the tremendous efforts of solidarity initiatives, such as Covax .
The overall context is uncertain due to the impact on international trade and strategic supplies from the possibility of an outbreak of the epidemic or an excessive delay in recovery in certain countries, but the impression given by the OECD is that the global economic outlook has improved since the end. 2020 and to increase its forecast for global growth for this year to 5.8%. Five countries, among developed nations, would do so above average: the United Kingdom, 7.2%; USA, 6.9%; Canada 6.1%; Spain, 5.9%; and France 5.8%. For 2021, a moderation in growth is expected, which will remain high (4.4%), highlighting Spain, which will be one of the few countries that will intensify it, due to the recovery of infections during the first quarter and the prolonged state of alert. On the one hand, and on the other hand, the greater impact of the epidemic, which is forcing a greater journey of recovery to reach its new potential.
Spain and the UK were the European economies hardest hit by the virus (GDP fell 10.8% and 9.8% in 2020, respectively), partly due to economies that will grow more in 2021, but while Britain will cut its growth to 5.5 % in 2022, and Spain is expected to accelerate to 6.8%. This explains the strong contrast between the economy before and after the state of alarm that lasted until May. The OECD is confident of a strong expansion in consumption and investment during the second half of the year and of benefits from improving surrounding economies, but the decisive contribution of tourism in the summer season will remain incomplete and will be delayed until next year.
Therefore, we are still exposed to the effects of the pandemic and its economic consequences, but we also face a promising horizon, to which governments must be sensitive. For the OECD, the need to maintain fiscal and monetary pulses in the recovery phase is indisputable, although it does indicate the appropriateness to begin designing post-Covid strategies as soon as possible. Spain will get critical support from the NextGeneration Fund and European Central Bank stimulus, provided that inflationary tensions confirm its ephemeral state and do not creep into the entire productive fabric, but there are also threats. Among them, the persistent state fiscal imbalance and business bankruptcy hidden behind Covid aid, but above all, as the chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development points out, governments are slackening, thinking they are doing enough.
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