Madrid, July 19. (European Press) –
Climate change is driving a Significant increase in slow storms and severe storms in Europe, According to a new study from Newcastle University and the British Met Office.
By investigating how weather affects severe storms in Europe, climate experts have shown that there will be a significant increase in the future in the occurrence of intense and slow storms. Scientists estimate that these slow-moving storms may be 14 times more frequent on Earth by the end of the century. It is these slow-moving storms that have the potential for very high accumulations of rain, with devastating effects مع It has also just been verified in Germany and Belgium.
Led by Dr Abdullah Kahraman of Newcastle University’s School of Engineering, the researchers used highly detailed climate simulations at the Met Office’s Hadley Center in the United Kingdom. They found that slowing down the movement of storms increases the amount of precipitation accumulated locally. The risk of flash floods in Europe increased beyond what was expected according to previous studies.
Published in the magazine Geophysical Research LettersThe study results show that storms that produce heavy rain may move more slowly with climate change, increasing the duration of exposure to these extremes.
Kahraman, who is also a visiting scientist at the Met Office, said It’s a statement: “With recent advances in the power of supercomputers, we now have pan-European climate simulations that resolve the atmosphere in great detail as short-range weather forecast models. These models have a grid spacing of about 2 km, which allows them to simulate storm systems much better, This leads to a better representation of the extremist parties.
“Using these state-of-the-art climate simulations, we have developed metrics to extract probable heavy precipitation states and a roughly smaller subset of these states with the potential for heavy precipitation accumulation. These metrics provide a comprehensive view of the problem and help us understand the factors in the atmosphere that contribute to changes In heavy rain.
“This is one of the first studies to explore changes in the velocity of these heavy rain systems.This is an important aspect that contributes to flood risks. Currently, we are also investigating other types of severe weather by examining data from climate simulations from the perspective of a severe weather forecaster.”
The study findings are relevant to climate mitigation and adaptation policy in Europe, with specific implications for future flood impacts, infrastructure systems design and water resource management.
Currently, heavy and semi-constant rains are rare in Europe and rarely in parts of the Mediterranean. Accurate predictions of future changes in heavy rain events are key To implement effective adaptation and mitigation plans to reduce the negative impacts of climate change.