On Saturday, January 1, the 52nd pandemic week of 2021 was closed, with 38,716 new cases of Covid-19 confirmed by the federal government through the platform it created National Council for Science and Technology (CONASET) to monitor. Regarding week 51, there were 17,655 cases, “the data tells us an increase of 119%,” and this is already a number that should concern the authorities and the population primarily, because it indicates that something is going to happen with Dr. Gerardo Mario Ortigoza Capitello, from the College of Engineering at the University of Veracruzana, who, along with other professionals, has devoted himself to analyzing trends and potential scenarios for the Covid-19 pandemic, has seen an increase in cases.
“We group the data into fourteen and what we see with algorithms and machine learning, which uses a Gaussian process, is that the data shows a spike, which can really be called the fourth wave.”
He explained that machine learning simply analyzes the data and starts tracking the trend, “They are cold numbers and in this sense the projection indicates that by mid-February we will be approaching the peak nationwide,” the specialist noted that you should be aware of the Omicron variant of Covid -19, which in Europe rose significantly in the number of cases and in Latin American countries also showed a rise. “In European countries, it has even had to go back to restrictive measures in an effort to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals.”
On Monday, January 3, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador admitted in his morning conference that infections from the micron variant had increased in recent days in the country, however, he made it clear that neither the number of hospitalizations nor deaths had increased. According to the data of the Ministry of Health, hospitals indicate that they occupy 14% in general beds and 12% in beds with ventilators.
According to data from Global Initiative for the Sharing of All Influenza Data (GISAID), from December 25 to December 31, cases in Mexico rose from 42 to 254.
Covid-19 takes on a seasonal behaviour
Ortigoza Capitello confirmed The Economist It should also be taken into account that Covid-19 exhibits seasonal behavior similar to influenza, that is, the cycles repeat themselves.
He explained that with global and private data, we understand that every year you will have to vaccinate new strains, but the thing that should not be missed is that when the number of cases increases, the likelihood of a new strain emerging increases and the new strain is expected to be less suitable or more friendly, but There is also the possibility that deaths will increase and that vaccines will not have the desired effect. “This is an inherent risk.”
Minors are presented as an at-risk population
In this notable new trend, he said, it certainly appears that viruses are looking to stay with us, until they find new clusters. “Initially with Covid, we saw a higher risk in the population over 60, then there were people aged 40 to 30, and now they are minors.”
The United States for example monitors this phenomenon, “Children get injured.” He said that these two weeks are crucial to loosening the measures or not, but that thinking about vaccinating minors should be a priority if they are to return to the classroom, as several states in the republic have already announced.
Dr. Ortigoza noted that children under the age of 12 to 14 have not been vaccinated in our country, as there is still no approval from the health and health authorities. “Let’s take a look at what is happening in the United States, where the vast majority of children who have been infected are hospitalized. Variable OmicronWe cannot ignore what is happening in other latitudes of the world.”
He said that if you’re already thinking about strengthening teachers and looking for an appointment, why not add to the minor population and reduce the risks?
What can we do as a society?
Although vaccination has played a key role in reducing hospitalizations, the specialist emphasized that we cannot lower our guard. “As a group, we can do something: wear masks, reduce movement, i.e. go out as little as possible, go back to small, non-group meetings; and of course be alert for reinforcements, go get vaccinated and don’t relax about it.”
He added that the measures have been relaxed, we have green lights, but the growth of cases is in the data, so we as citizens must be vigilant and responsible. “In general, we already know what we have to do, lest we forget because the citizens’ actions were also essential. If we organize ourselves as a society we can defeat the virus.”
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