Global investors are more concerned about the Mexican government’s decisions than about the slowdown in the US. This is evidenced by his monthly survey American Bank Guarantees Among global fund managers.
According to the results, 40% of survey respondents considered “government decisions” the greatest risk to the country, more than the 35% that was collected in an opinion exercise last month.
35% consider it to be US economic slowdown The risks are highest and only 8% identified slow vaccination as the greatest risk.
According to a BofA reading, the change in outlook on Mexico is the result of a more dynamic vaccine projection and improved growth prospects.
Survey results show that 40% of respondents believe Mexico will lose their investment score, the lowest percentage since they started asking this question in the survey, in September 2019.
The percentage of investors who see Mexico today as being at risk of falling into a speculative rating is down from 50% that had that perception last month and is far from the peak it reached in July last year, when 76% of those surveyed deemed it viable. You lose your investment score.
According to the survey results, 46% of the investors consulted estimate that the economy will achieve a recovery in GDP that could fluctuate between 2.5 and 5% this year and less than 10% believe that it could record even greater GDP growth, between 5 and 5%. 7.5% annually.
Investors also responded to their expectations regarding the interbank rate. 40% estimate they will close the year between 3.5 and 3.75%, which is less than 4% revenue where they are now. 31% estimate it will remain the same and 25% believe it may rise, closing between 4.25% and 4.5 points.
The survey, which is regional in nature, showed that 65% of investors consider that Inflation It will record a “modest bullish divergence” this year and that the Mexican peso will be the heaviest currency this year compared to the Chilean peso, the Brazilian real and the US dollar.
According to the results, 84% of those surveyed consider that a delay in vaccination can impede regional recovery, a figure that contrasts with 70% of those with the same scenario in the previous month.
Faced with this health panorama, 45% of those interviewed believed that the regional economic recovery would have a deep and slow “U” shape.
The survey was conducted between March 8 and 12 among 25 members who manage portfolios valued at an estimated $ 86 billion.