Mexico City. Economic growth for this year will be only 2.5 percent due to the closure of non-essential activities in Mexico City and the state of Mexico due to the high number of coronavirus infections, as the second lockdown is likely to extend over more time, said Ignacio Martinez Curtis, Coordinator of the Analysis Laboratory in Trade, Economics and Business. (Lacen) at UNAM.
In a hypothetical conference on the economic outlook for the just beginning, the expert commented that the federal government had not considered closing companies in the two entities that alone contribute 25 percent of GDP.
He pointed out that the impact of the closure of economic units for a period of 40 days – the last of December and the whole of January – will not only be reflected in the economies of the two entities, but also in the increase of national wealth.
He stressed that gross domestic product will grow 2.5 percent by the end of this year, after the national economy shrank 9.6 percent in 2020.
He added that if the lockdown prolongs in the Valley of Mexico, the federal government will not receive tax revenues as planned in the budget, as the impact will be seen in collecting the three main taxes: IEPS, ISR and VAT.
He explained that the income of families who depend on sectors such as the owner of the restaurant will also decrease. “For every person who does not wear a mask and does not take care of himself, this person can cause three other people to lose their jobs or reduce their income,” he said.
He commented that expectations would be transferred to the manufacturing sector, as well as the perspective that the Mexico, USA and Canada Treaty (TMEC) could offer.
However, if the country’s government vaccination plans “do not give themselves” in the coverage planned for the first semester, for August or September, it expects a new slump in the economy.
“The vaccine is not a panacea. It is desirable for the president (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) to change the narrative of the investor. We know he will not do that and it will be necessary to go to meet important ministers in the government.”
In spite of this, in the first seven days of the year, the absence of Arturo Herrera Gutierrez, Secretary of the Treasury, Luisa Maria Alcaldi, Head of Labor and Welfare, was noticed, among others who should send signals to investors.