If Morena loses the majority in Congress, governing the country will be much more difficult and better. Just because it’s easy doesn’t mean it’s good. “The referee has no knowledge,” said Lopez Obrador, and that is what we are doing now.
More than half a million Covid deaths, down -8.5 percent of GDP, more than 80,000 victims due to insecurity. Judgment requires knowledge. If he loses the majority in the House of Representatives, Morena will have to negotiate. They will have to sit down and negotiate the budget. Negotiation is not one of the president’s favorite words. Negotiation is listening, giving in to getting to the end. How willing is the president to negotiate? To open his mouth, the president said, “I remind you that the executive authority has the right to veto.” In fact, you cannot object to the budget because it is a one-chamber law (you can only object to bicameral laws) the ruling requires a certain degree of knowledge. For example, it is sufficient just not to announce the veto that you do not have.
Negotiation is the opposite of Salinas saying “I neither see nor hear them.” To negotiate, it is essential to know how to see and hear the other. You have to give in to come to an agreement. The social shows, Dos Bocas, Tren Maya and Santa Lucía will be brought to the table. Will we have a responsible opposition? A large number of deputies will come to the House with the slogan of stopping Lopez Obrador’s initiatives. It is impossible to believe that the president’s actions will not provoke a reaction.
Will extremist opposition reach the room that wants to close the valves of giant projects, causing maximum tension with the executive authority? In his second term as President of the United States, Barack Obama lost a majority in the House of Representatives and no longer has a majority in the Senate. How do you judge with rooms against? Negotiating with the Republicans was like talking to a wall. Obama will govern for four years through executive decrees, the tool he had in his executive capacity. It is the duty of the opposition to be constructive opposition, and to assist the president in carrying out his projects, as long as they are truly necessary for the development of the country.
The polls were closed. It seems very difficult for Morena to keep the qualified majority (which he manually reached in this legislature) and the competition for an absolute majority in the House of Representatives is very close. We’ll soon know our post-Metro Olivos surveys. The currency is in the air. This is one of the basic components of democracy: uncertainty in the election outcome. Anything can happen. Let Morena get the sweep. That Morena loses the majority in Congress.
So far the role of the opposition has been pathetic. Social programs were one of the most controversial points in Lopez Obrador’s government. It is not clear how many people are receiving it. The number ranges between 16 and 21 million Mexicans. They are classified as electoral programs, and they are implemented in a hurry and without prior studies, without necessary and transparent audits. “Don’t teach them to fish,” says the president. Let’s give them fish. Then he cites the unfortunate example of how to feed a pet. And the audience applauds him. Pets applaud him. And they vote. And in these elections, what did the opposition suggest regarding these financial transfers? Let them continue. They keep on giving. If someone from Morena says (starting with the president) that the opposition will remove this support, the opposition jumps up and explains: “We will continue social programs!” Lopez Obrador Triumph: His opponents are his biggest fans. (It’s clear to me that announcing their retirement is equivalent to shooting them in the foot.) But they should start thinking about what they would do as a government. Delete them? Teaching them to hunt? A combination of giving them fish and teaching them to fish?
Losing a majority does not necessarily lead to confrontation. A spirited presidency, keen on its place in history, can rule with a Congress that gives knowledge – and meaning – to the social function of this administration. An opposition is not just intended to obstruct, as Morena did in Congress. It would be disastrous to transfer the polarization that we have experienced in these years in social life to the confrontation between forces. We need responsible and creative opposition. Aware of what they are missing in the realm of social policy; We also know that the fight against organized crime is not won by bullets, and a hug is not enough. We need a government that manages with science. We need to go from the judgment of the Savior to the disgrace to the truly capable. Strong executive with constructive opposition.
The coin spins in the air. Which country awaits us with the opposition as a majority in the House of Representatives? What new alliances will be formed, and what others will be strengthened? I doubt very much that the president will act at the height of this moment.