Hacienda, Better Predictions Than Saves

The GDP behavior calculations of the Ministry of Finance for the fourth quarter of the first year of the government failed completely and that was the full responsibility of this administration, which is far from achieving the promised growth of 4%. Led the Mexican economy into a recession.

It was impossible to meet the initial forecast of 2020 GDP in Mexico and anywhere in the world, because the epidemic broke out to change the course of history.

Over the past year, the Finance Ministry has revised its estimate of the economy’s downturn several times to a drop of 8 per cent. An account that seemed less pessimistic than that of the rest of the analysts at the time.

Thus, Arturo Herrera’s finance ministry was very close to the bottom line of the worst data on GDP behavior in nearly 100 years in Mexico. This renews its bonds so that, with a view to introducing pre-set economic benchmarks for 2022, before April 1, its forecasts are now corrected. For this year, GDP is expected to grow by up to 5%.

It is good for the Treasury to be a better predictor and certified predictor, and what it cannot avoid is the burden of not being able to be a suitable savior of the economy in the midst of a crisis due to a pandemic and in the face of the worst recession in recent history.

Ultimately, the Finance Ministry was unable to implement a countercyclical program to support workers, because their boss did not allow them to.

The Treasury relies on the executive branch, which is not just about organizational structure, but about truly full dependence on the decisions of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. If bailing out those who have lost income under the vision of the 4T leader is a matter of neoliberals, it simply isn’t.

In a presidential system, it is the CEO who makes these types of financial decisions. But in past governments, treasury experts had room to maneuver to operate, on the grounds that this is where the experts are.

Perhaps only the hostile state of the present circumstance, in which the president has control of everything, occurred during Vicente Fox’s six-year rule, when the Secretary of the Treasury, Francisco Gilles Diaz, himself commanded.

The controlling scope of the incumbent president reaches Congress, so it seems to be a bad banter that Morena senators are filling their mouths with the fact that the secret game is over, when the entire budget is at these times a discretionary party of Lopez Obrador.

Consequently, the Finance Ministry will improve its GDP growth forecast, and boast of it, at least for this year. You will forget to say that it is only a recovery from the US economic bailout.

But, in any case, restoring their expectations to credibility is a work of justice for the Treasury experts, who know a lot about their work but tie their hands within the National Palace itself.

The Finance Ministry is in the process of improving, and will boast, its GDP growth forecast at least this year. You will forget to say that it is only a recovery from the US economic bailout.

It is good for the Treasury to be a better predictor and certified predictor, and what it cannot avoid is the burden of not being able to be a suitable savior of the economy in the midst of a crisis due to a pandemic and in the face of the worst recession in recent history.

[email protected]

Host of newscasts on Televisa

The Great Depression

Bachelor of Science in Communication from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with a major in Finance from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and a Master in Journalism from the University of Anahuaq.

He devoted his career to various media. He is currently a columnist for El Economista and host of newscasts on Televisa. He is the owner of the news space at 2:00 pm on Foro TV.

He specializes in economics and finance with more than 25 years of experience as a commentator and host in radio and television. He was part of companies like Radio Programs de México, where he was involved in VIP Business Radio. He was also part of the management and talent team at Radio Fórmula.