34 Past U.S. Recessions Studied: Key Warning Signs Flashing Red Right Now

Deutsche Bank Economists Predict Impending US Recession Despite Resilient Economy

In an unexpected analysis, Deutsche Bank economists have continued to predict a forthcoming recession in the United States, going against the prevailing narrative of a strong and resilient economy. They conducted a comprehensive study, analyzing 34 US recessions dating back to 1854, to identify patterns and triggers that could potentially lead to another economic downturn.

Their findings highlighted four key triggers: rapidly rising short-end interest rates, surging inflation, inversions of the yield curve, and oil price shocks. While no single trigger can accurately predict a recession, the economists noted that all four triggers are currently occurring simultaneously in the US.

According to historical data, a rapid rise in interest rates has often been the catalyst for recession, occurring 69% of the time within three years when short-term interest rates rose by 2.5 percentage points over a 24-month period. Additionally, a spike in inflation has led to a recession 77% of the time when inflation rose by three percentage points over a 24-month period.

Furthermore, an inverted yield curve, where short-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds, has resulted in a recession in 74.1% of cases. However, the economists cautioned that oil price shocks are less indicative of an impending recession. Their analysis revealed that a recession occurred only 45.9% of the time when oil prices spiked 25% over a 12-month period, and 48.2% of the time when prices spiked 50% over a two-year period.

While their predictions may be unsettling for some, Deutsche Bank economists argue that it is crucial to closely monitor these triggers and their implications given their historical correlations with economic downturns. Their analysis suggests that the US economy might be heading towards a turbulent phase if these triggers persist.

As investors and policymakers continue to closely watch the economy, it remains to be seen whether these predictions will hold true. The Deutsche Bank economists have stirred up a debate and raised concerns regarding the ongoing strength of the US economy, urging vigilance and proactive measures to avert a potential recession.