Housing Market Tracker: Rates finally head lower

Vernon Shorts 1 year ago 2 min read

Title: Housing Market Remains Steady Amidst Volatile 10-Year Yield and Mortgage Rates

Subtitle: Slow Growth in Housing Inventory Sparks Concerns in the Midst of Banking Crisis

by [Your Name], Published on The Daily Guardian

[date]

In recent weeks, the housing market has experienced fluctuations in both the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. However, they have managed to stay within the predicted range of 3.21% to 4.25% for the yield and 5.75% to 7.25% for mortgage rates. Despite the ongoing banking crisis, mortgage rates have not dropped significantly, as they would in a normal market with the current 10-year yield.

One concerning trend in the housing market is the slow growth of housing inventory. New listing data has hit record lows and remains below the levels seen in January. The inventory reached its bottom at 240,194 in 2022, and the peak for 2023 so far is at 472,688. Year-over-year data for 2023 has shown negative growth, which is attributed to the sluggish recovery from the seasonal bottom in April.

Typically, the active listings inventory declines over a few months, but the new listing data is already indicating signs of declining. This decline raises concerns about the future availability of homes for potential buyers.

Although purchase application data has experienced a 2% weekly decrease, it has generally displayed more positive prints than negative ones since November 2022. This suggests that buyers are still active in the market despite the challenges posed by the current economic climate.

While home sales have generally remained stable, there is a noticeable difference between the new home sales sector and the existing home sales market. The new home sales sector shows growth, while the existing home sales market struggles due to the high mortgage rates.

Looking ahead, the coming week will witness several critical housing reports that will shed light on the national housing market. These reports include the builder’s confidence index, housing starts, and the existing home sales report. Additionally, the retail sales, Leading Economic Index, and jobless claims will be closely monitored for their impact on the 10-year yield and mortgage rates.

As the housing market navigates through these uncertain times, it is important for potential homebuyers and industry professionals to stay informed about these developments to make informed decisions and gauge the market’s direction.

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